Instead of letting your blood pressure rise unnecessarily due to listening to political pundits talk about the recent elections, why not just start with Nate Silver?
Why did Democrats lose in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday? Because independent voters moved against them, say the pundits.
This is true, insofar as it goes; Democrats lost independents nearly 2:1 in the gubernatorial race in Virginia, and by a 25-point margin in New Jersey.
But it doesn’t really tell us very much. It’s a lot like saying: the Yankees won the Game 6 last night because they scored more runs than the Phillies. Or: the unemployment rate went up because there were fewer jobs…. [Source]
BTW, I am getting together a listing of resources for bloggers who may not be statistical wizzes. (I include myself in that number—educational credentials notwithstanding.) My idea is that as blogging as a means of social media has matured, we bloggers need to be more intentional and factual about how we interpret statistics. If you have any links to suggest, please drop me a line.